A warming climate and aging population could cause a spike in heat-related deaths in big cities by century's end, according to an environmental action group.
Cleveland is among the most vulnerable, according to a report the Natural Resource Defense Counsel released Tuesday.
Cleveland averaged about 40 deaths attributable to extreme heat between 1975 and 2004, and averaged five unusually hot days a year during that period. The study projects Cleveland's death toll could increase by more than 90 a year.
The study says that if heat-trapping carbon emissions continue at current rates, Cleveland will experience 17 extremely hot days a year by 2099 and 2,530 deaths a year.
Nationally that adds up to an additional 150,000 deaths, according to Dr. Daniel Lashof, director of the NRDC's climate and clean air program, and Dr. Larry Kalkstein, senior professor of geography and regional studies at the University of Miami in Florida.
Places like Cleveland in the Midwest and Northeast are more vulnerable for heat-driven deaths because they have the wildest fluctuations in weather and temperatures, Kalkstein said.
By contrast, his town, Miami, does not experience heat-driven deaths because Florida's summer weather is the same day after day.
Extreme heat conditions involve summertime temperatures that are substantially hotter and/or more humid than average for a location at that time of year, according to the national Centers for Disease Control. That means that a temperature swing upward accompanied by high humidy, can present health hazards.
People suffer heat-related illness when their bodies are unable to compensate and properly cool themselves, according to the CDC. Under some conditions, sweating just isn't enough. In such cases, a person's body temperature rises rapidly. Very high body temperatures may damage the brain or other vital organs.
Kalkstein said local statistics under report heat-driven deaths. Everyone knows that heart attacks, strokes and respiratory failure spike during periods of extreme heat, he said in a national teleconference Tuesday.
Dr. Thomas Gilson, an assistant Cuyahoga County medical examiner, guessed that there were 10 heat-related deaths last year.
But the NRDC estimates that the number of heat related deaths could actually have been four times that rate, on average between 1975 and 2004. That's because many medical examiners often attribute deaths to the hearts attacks, for instance, instead of the heat, Kalkstein said.
Some of the most vulnerable populations include senior citizens and people who live in poverty.
Terry Allan, Cuyahoga County's health commissioner, said people who are confined to bed , who are unable to care for themselves, are socially isolated or suffer from psychological, cardiovascular or respiratory illness also are at greater risk.
In addition to social and economic factors, community response can impact the number of fatalities.
For example, the study predicted that Philadelphia could have half the fatalities that Cleveland might have by 2099. Philadelphia has a sophisticated heat-warning system, and during heats alerts it increases staffing in emergency rooms and has volunteer block captains who check on the elderly.
Lashof said Philadelphia spends at least $100,000 a year to prepare for high temperatures, while some cities spend little or nothing.
Columbus is expected to have fewer fatalities because more people have access to air conditioners there, the researchers said, and Cincinnati has brighter expectations because of a sophisticated warning system.
Tracy Sabetta, spokeswoman for the National Wildlife Fund in Ohio, said Cleveland is less forested than other urban areas. Asphalt and concrete absorb and radiate heat, she said and can cause temperatures 10 degrees higher than nearby rural environments.
And unlike Columbus and Cincinnati, Kalkstein said, Cleveland does not have a sophisticated heat-warning system.
"Being near the lake, people there are not expecting 90- and 100-degree temperature spikes," Kalkstein said. "Cleveland is not known to be affluent, it has a fairly sizable poor population spike, and there's not a high proportion of air conditions for its location."
Allan and the researchers all said that the heat-related deaths of more than 700 people in Chicago in 1995 raised nation awareness of the need to plan for extreme heat days.
Cuyahoga County has an emergency plan, Allan said. "When we see sustained (high) heat over several days, typically, we first work with community, senior and rec centers because they can become cooling centers."
Allan said the county would work with RTA and other agencies to get people to the centers. He said the United Way funded First Call 211 program helps link people in need with health and social services.
The county program also works with medical professionals to educate them on how to recognize, mange and prevent heat-related illnesses, in part because they sometimes mimic other illness
Jenita McGowan, chief of sustainability for the city of Cleveland, said through a city spokeswoman that her office is "preparing to engage in climate action planning which includes both climate change mitigation as well as adaptation. The planning process is scheduled to be from July 2012 through June 2013."
